flower-shilling

Silver Price Watch

Smithys Bullion - FINE GOLD AND SILVER
pmbug said:
I updated my silver vault analysis (LBMA, COMEX, SFE/SGE). Numbers don't make a lot of sense and I suspect someone is lying...
Click to expand...

Updated for April:
pmbug said:
If these reports are to be believed, over the last three months, the amount of silver stored in global exchange vaults (LBMA + COMEX + SFE/SGE) has increased 90.667 mtoz ( 2,820 metric tons) all while silver is in a structural deficit with global demand exceeding global production. It does not make sense and I suspect that someone (looking at you LBMA) is lying.
Click to expand...

www.pmbug.com

Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

Update (see post #115 for last month):LBMA - As at end February 2025, ... There were also 22,462 tonnes of silver (a 4.5% decrease on previous month)... ETF report for 7 March claims 551.648 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~170.536 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by...
www.pmbug.com www.pmbug.com
 
I had a strong sense that thurs morning was a low. Had a weird dream. Didnt buy anything but yes, wxactly was i was thinking. Gold was 4.8something k and felt that was a bottom. Hope im wrong and it all drops 30 percent.
 
Looking at the longer-term charts, I will put my neck on the line and say a dump is inline with the Elliott wave theory as the POS is struggling to advance above my charted uptrend line in previous posts.
 
Some people think the GSR is irrelevant, and it surely behaves that way, but I think it's completely relevant because it's based off the natural ratio of abundance in the earth's crust. You can't have something mined out of the ground at a 7:1 ratio and it be priced at 100:1 for very long.

Here's some facts:

Gold demand for 2024 was approximately 160 million Oz's. Gold supply was exactly the same.

Silver demand is 1.16 Billion Oz's. Silver supply was 187 Million Oz's less, almost a 20% deficit.

The mining GSR is 7:1 but Silver is in a significant deficit.

The GSR matters. Once they cannot use (run out of) aboveground silver to feed this growing deficit, the price of silver will narrow down to the 7:1 ratio. It's inevitable. We already have more people wanting silver than the market can produce, that's not happening to Gold right now (although I'm suspicious of the figures) but the price is climbing. Watch the frenzy unfold with Silver when we have a lot of hungry mouths that cannot be fed. Silver still is the buy of the century.
 
Oh, and BTW - 7:1 in Aussie dollar terms is $714 an oz.

Does anyone think Samsung will give a fuck when their smartphones use $7 of silver instead of 50 cents? Maybe that's why they're securing supply by contracting directly with the mines. They don't care if it costs 14x more, they only care about being the ones that have it.
 
STKR said:
... You can't have something mined out of the ground at a 7:1 ratio and it be priced at 100:1 for very long. ...
Click to expand...

Price is a function of supply *and* demand. GSR does not express any market dynamic between gold and silver demand. Gold demand is monetary and jewelry. Silver demand is mainly industrial (currently).
 
pmbug said:
Price is a function of supply *and* demand. GSR does not express any market dynamic between gold and silver demand. Gold demand is monetary and jewelry. Silver demand is mainly industrial (currently).
Click to expand...
Of course, but at what point does the mining ratio become relevant? Especially if silver is in a multi-year deficit. Historically, and for the very reason of scarcity of the metals in the earth's crust, silver has been valued at ratios varying from 18:1 down to 3:1. Never throughout our known history has it been valued at 100:1 except for in the past few years. The GSR isn't some new construct, it has been around for millennia and has consistently been lower than 20:1 for a very good reason.

What I find curious is how we have a rather comprehensive survey from the Silver Institute and Metals Focus but they never indicate where the silver is entering the market to satisfy the deficit and keep the price stable. Gold is not in a deficit yet the price explodes. Silver is in a considerable deficit and the price remains stagnant. I would argue (when you factor in the market manipulators), price is a function of whatever the fuck they want to set it as for as long as they're willing to intervene. There is no free market until they're incapable of their interventions. The moment it does become a free market, we will see the GSR return to historical levels.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top