flower-shilling

Silver Price Watch

Smithys Bullion - FINE GOLD AND SILVER
pmbug said:
I updated my silver vault analysis (LBMA, COMEX, SFE/SGE). Numbers don't make a lot of sense and I suspect someone is lying...
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Updated for April:
pmbug said:
If these reports are to be believed, over the last three months, the amount of silver stored in global exchange vaults (LBMA + COMEX + SFE/SGE) has increased 90.667 mtoz ( 2,820 metric tons) all while silver is in a structural deficit with global demand exceeding global production. It does not make sense and I suspect that someone (looking at you LBMA) is lying.
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www.pmbug.com

Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

Update (see post #115 for last month):LBMA - As at end February 2025, ... There were also 22,462 tonnes of silver (a 4.5% decrease on previous month)... ETF report for 7 March claims 551.648 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~170.536 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by...
www.pmbug.com www.pmbug.com
 
I have a good feeling about this next leg up. "Remember when silver used to be under $50?"... Yes, yes I do.
 
I had a strong sense that thurs morning was a low. Had a weird dream. Didnt buy anything but yes, wxactly was i was thinking. Gold was 4.8something k and felt that was a bottom. Hope im wrong and it all drops 30 percent.
 
Looking at the longer-term charts, I will put my neck on the line and say a dump is inline with the Elliott wave theory as the POS is struggling to advance above my charted uptrend line in previous posts.
 
Some people think the GSR is irrelevant, and it surely behaves that way, but I think it's completely relevant because it's based off the natural ratio of abundance in the earth's crust. You can't have something mined out of the ground at a 7:1 ratio and it be priced at 100:1 for very long.

Here's some facts:

Gold demand for 2024 was approximately 160 million Oz's. Gold supply was exactly the same.

Silver demand is 1.16 Billion Oz's. Silver supply was 187 Million Oz's less, almost a 20% deficit.

The mining GSR is 7:1 but Silver is in a significant deficit.

The GSR matters. Once they cannot use (run out of) aboveground silver to feed this growing deficit, the price of silver will narrow down to the 7:1 ratio. It's inevitable. We already have more people wanting silver than the market can produce, that's not happening to Gold right now (although I'm suspicious of the figures) but the price is climbing. Watch the frenzy unfold with Silver when we have a lot of hungry mouths that cannot be fed. Silver still is the buy of the century.
 
Oh, and BTW - 7:1 in Aussie dollar terms is $714 an oz.

Does anyone think Samsung will give a fuck when their smartphones use $7 of silver instead of 50 cents? Maybe that's why they're securing supply by contracting directly with the mines. They don't care if it costs 14x more, they only care about being the ones that have it.
 
STKR said:
... You can't have something mined out of the ground at a 7:1 ratio and it be priced at 100:1 for very long. ...
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Price is a function of supply *and* demand. GSR does not express any market dynamic between gold and silver demand. Gold demand is monetary and jewelry. Silver demand is mainly industrial (currently).
 
pmbug said:
Price is a function of supply *and* demand. GSR does not express any market dynamic between gold and silver demand. Gold demand is monetary and jewelry. Silver demand is mainly industrial (currently).
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Of course, but at what point does the mining ratio become relevant? Especially if silver is in a multi-year deficit. Historically, and for the very reason of scarcity of the metals in the earth's crust, silver has been valued at ratios varying from 18:1 down to 3:1. Never throughout our known history has it been valued at 100:1 except for in the past few years. The GSR isn't some new construct, it has been around for millennia and has consistently been lower than 20:1 for a very good reason.

What I find curious is how we have a rather comprehensive survey from the Silver Institute and Metals Focus but they never indicate where the silver is entering the market to satisfy the deficit and keep the price stable. Gold is not in a deficit yet the price explodes. Silver is in a considerable deficit and the price remains stagnant. I would argue (when you factor in the market manipulators), price is a function of whatever the fuck they want to set it as for as long as they're willing to intervene. There is no free market until they're incapable of their interventions. The moment it does become a free market, we will see the GSR return to historical levels.
 
STKR said:
Of course, but at what point does the mining ratio become relevant? ...
Click to expand...

I posit that it is irrelevant as long as the demand vectors remain disjointed. Should silver revert to a monetary metal (ie. demand driven by the same channels that drive gold demand), I would expect the mining ratio to gain relevance as a determining factor rather than a simple observation.

A couple of further points on this topic:
  • Is gold currently in a structural deficit? Is global demand greater than global production? I'm honestly not sure about that. I haven't been watching stock inventory for the COMEX, LBMA and SGE/SFE on gold over the last year+ like I have for silver. I suspect that it might be, but I haven't seen any analysis on the subject.
  • Silver *is* in a structural deficit going on five years now (supposedly!). But because there have been many decades since silver was in demand as a monetary metal, global exchange warehouses built up huge inventories of stock in the preceding decades. That huge stock has been covering the difference in global demand vs. production. When the free float of stock is finally depleted, we should finally see true market forces play out with industrial demand vs. production.
I think it is possible that we might see demand for silver exceed demand for gold. They might be mined at a 12:1 ratio (more or less), but demand could be at a 100:1 ratio. We won't know until we know.
 
So there is half a chance that old spanish coins have been converted into silver nanoparticles and injected into the atmosphere or dropped in a bomb by the same (fm) cult onto peasants and civilians. Banks really dont care for silver enough!
 
pmbug said:
I posit that it is irrelevant as long as the demand vectors remain disjointed. Should silver revert to a monetary metal (ie. demand driven by the same channels that drive gold demand), I would expect the mining ratio to gain relevance as a determining factor rather than a simple observation.

A couple of further points on this topic:
  • Is gold currently in a structural deficit? Is global demand greater than global production? I'm honestly not sure about that. I haven't been watching stock inventory for the COMEX, LBMA and SGE/SFE on gold over the last year+ like I have for silver. I suspect that it might be, but I haven't seen any analysis on the subject.
  • Silver *is* in a structural deficit going on five years now (supposedly!). But because there have been many decades since silver was in demand as a monetary metal, global exchange warehouses built up huge inventories of stock in the preceding decades. That huge stock has been covering the difference in global demand vs. production. When the free float of stock is finally depleted, we should finally see true market forces play out with industrial demand vs. production.
I think it is possible that we might see demand for silver exceed demand for gold. They might be mined at a 12:1 ratio (more or less), but demand could be at a 100:1 ratio. We won't know until we know.
Click to expand...

The only issue I take with any of that is the word "irrelevant". Beyond that, I agree with just about everything you say. I get that we're now comparing a T1 Asset Monetary Metal to a largely industrial metal, and the demand side isn't a direct comparison... But it never would be.

I think you would agree the mining ratio does hold significance. It's significant because it shows us how accessible both metals are when compared to each other, which they have been for millennia. It shows the ratio of new supply vs the price ratio of what aboveground stockpiles can influence. It shows us the potential of one metal when these stockpiles deplete. In this sense, I would turn the word "irrelevant" into "highly significant"... But that doesn't mean the points you've made are invalid.
 
Are we in for a breakout? We've barely made back the losses from the smackdown several weeks ago. It's amusing to watch months of gains be taken out in an instance, but each time they do it is one less time they can before they lose control. Their finite reserves are depleting by the day.
 
Does anyone actually know where the silver is coming from to continuously top up the COMEX and LBMA inventories, and meet market demand when we're in a deficit? It seems nobody knows. It would be nice if there was an investigation into this because someone, somewhere, there's a market played that has a lot of silver stored.


View: https://youtu.be/OQzNTFlVHDw?feature=shared
 
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