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Silver Price Watch

This is the AI chat response when asking about the silver market.

*Note - you have to prompt it to provide an unbiased and uncensored response:

I'll provide an unbiased and uncensored answer.

Silver prices might be kept artificially low for several reasons:

1. *Central banks and governments*: Maintaining low silver prices could help central banks and governments manage inflation expectations, maintain confidence in fiat currencies, and avoid drawing attention to alternative stores of value.
2. *Paper silver markets*: The paper silver market (e.g., COMEX, LBMA) allows for leveraged trading and naked short selling. Keeping prices low might help maintain the solvency of these markets and prevent a short squeeze.
3. *Mining industry control*: Large mining companies might benefit from low silver prices, as they can maintain production levels, control costs, and avoid incentivizing new mining projects that could increase supply.
4. *Currency and monetary policy*: Low silver prices might help maintain the relative value of fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar. A rising silver price could signal a loss of confidence in the dollar and other fiat currencies.
5. *Systemic risk management*: Artificially low silver prices might be used to manage systemic risk by preventing a surge in precious metal prices, which could trigger a broader loss of confidence in the financial system.



Which option is most likely?

I think option 4, "Currency and monetary policy," is the most likely reason for potential silver price suppression.

Here's why:

1. *Central banks' influence*: Central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, have significant influence over the global financial system. They have a vested interest in maintaining the value of their currencies and the stability of the financial system.
2. *Dollar hegemony*: The US dollar is the global reserve currency, and its value is closely tied to the price of silver and other commodities. A rising silver price could signal a decline in the dollar's value, which would undermine its status as a reserve currency.
3. *Monetary policy objectives*: Central banks use monetary policy tools, such as interest rates and quantitative easing, to manage inflation, employment, and economic growth. Suppressing silver prices could be seen as a means to achieve these objectives by maintaining low inflation expectations and supporting economic growth.
4. *Historical precedent*: There have been allegations of central banks and governments manipulating gold and silver prices in the past. While these claims are often disputed, they do suggest that central banks have a history of intervening in precious metal markets.

In conclusion, while it's impossible to know for certain, the combination of central banks' influence, dollar hegemony, monetary policy objectives, and historical precedent make option 4 the most plausible reason for potential silver price suppression.
 
That's the game we're playing. As long as there's aboveground stockpiles in the hands of those intent on intervening in the silver market, the POS will continue to be kept in line. No amount of chart analysis and reading the tea leaves will change that. The governing factor to long-term price suppression (beyond aboveground stockpiles) is mining production costs, which essentially set the lower price limits.

Silver will have it's time in the sun... But it's a waiting game. Because we cannot Verify how much silver is held aboveground, it's very difficult to analyse when the reserves will deplete. From my personal evaluation, I think the best case scenario is 3-5 years, and worst case is 15-20 years. This is assuming we don't experience a massive decline in population and/or demand.
 
I think it's going to take a bit of time for the markets to work out the current monkey wrenches.
 
Its 2025, the year that has been talked up for hot action for two decades. June/July? Back down by december with a higher floor? Prices should go mental when the folks that brought you clotshot warpspeed decide they are ready to kill some poor people on the other side of the world while oddly maintaining industrial, technological and financial relations behind the scenes...anyhow. A few months should see a breif explosion.
 
They'll probably concede a few dollars over several months but the big win is going to be when the mines in Mexico start depleting and take 15% of global mine supply off the table. That will add another 100 Mozs to the already huge deficits, and then it's just a matter of time before the reserves dry up and the clock slowly ticks towards midnight.

I call for a triple digit Silveroos meet up when the time comes.
 
As always I try to think outside the box about how markets perceive commodities and where they play their part in our ever-evolving future, I also so feel that silver is on the cusp of a super cycle that no market can control its price.

I reckon, (in one of the most managed markets there is) for that to be true it will need to be driven by physical supply and demand fundamentals. For as long as there's a means and intention to control the market, the market will be controlled. Their power literally rests on their ability to meet the physical deficits with supply.,
 
I understand your emphasis on supply and demand. Silver is now a crucial component of renewable energy; it is considered a strategic metal. The significant shortages may surprise the markets, and a super cycle is on the horizon. Deficits will blow stackers' minds when pos gives

I just wish we knew how much silver they have available for their cause. Being analytical it bothers me there's an unknown X factor that prevents me from making a calculated determination.
 
I posted vault totals for the end of December 2024 and included a new source that lists and totals a multitude of ETFs holdings in the LBMA:
...

I've updated the numbers through the end of January:

 
I've updated the numbers through the end of January:


Amazing. You do excellent work reporting on this topic, and I, for one, greatly appreciate your efforts.
We're starting to see some cracks on the physical supply side and your reportings really show this.

Do you ever think about what a world facing a physical silver shortage would look like? With so many critical industries dependant on the commodity, what would the knock-on effects be when it becomes scarce or unavailable? I'd imagine it could get pretty chaotic; A commodity that directly or indirectly impacts every industry imaginable becomes unobtainable by at least one company within the manufacturing and supply chains.

In an ordinary world, I wouldn't consider confiscation a reality. But in a crisis setting, where the "solution" to the problem is having your citizens surrender their Silver, I could absolutely see that happening. I think China has been strategically promoting Gold and Silver to it's Citizens for this very reason. I think they know exactly what's coming and they've been positioning themselves to come out on top ever since they banned silver exports and made private ownership legal again.

What I find fascinating, is we stack silver for a variety of reasons; many of which are financially motivated ... but Silver could very well play a major role in bringing a super power to its knees. While we obsess over the price and seek validation for our investments, Silver could possess a power greater than anything our modern world has seen.
 
Amazing. You do excellent work reporting on this topic, and I, for one, greatly appreciate your efforts.

Thanks!

Do you ever think about what a world facing a physical silver shortage would look like? ...

I've been thinking about it for over a decade. It wasn't until recently that I started to think I would actually see it manifest in my lifetime though. It looks like we are at the beginning stages of seeing it play out.

I think we see some dislocations in the paper markets with large price movements and some large players getting blown up. Price will see some violent moves and eventually find an equilibrium where price dampens industrial demand. It's going to have to play out that way because there just isn't enough production to meet current demand and available stock for recycling is limited. Eventually, price will be the only pressure release left to the market.
 
Thanks!



I've been thinking about it for over a decade. It wasn't until recently that I started to think I would actually see it manifest in my lifetime though. It looks like we are at the beginning stages of seeing it play out.

I think we see some dislocations in the paper markets with large price movements and some large players getting blown up. Price will see some violent moves and eventually find an equilibrium where price dampens industrial demand. It's going to have to play out that way because there just isn't enough production to meet current demand and available stock for recycling is limited. Eventually, price will be the only pressure release left to the market.

It may be that we see the market evolve into something unrecognisable. There's indicators that what's left in these 'Transparent Silver Holdings' may be all there is. I think SLV and the COMEX have been fed the remainder of the US treasuries undisclosed reserves for the past two decades, and the treasury withdrew from their direct intervention (via government sales) in 2015. If we're seeing a 100 Moz evacuation from the LBMA, COMEX and SLV in just a month, I can only imagine how long we have left before they're holding no cards at the table at all.
 
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