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Silver Price Watch

Smithys Bullion - FINE GOLD AND SILVER
Hi Stackers,
With markets winding down for Christmas Eve (Dec 24, 2025), the big story in the silver world right now is the insane physical delivery activity on COMEX during this December contract month.Normally, COMEX silver futures see very low actual delivery rates — historically, less than 1–2% of open interest (or contracts) ever go to physical delivery. Most positions roll over, cash-settle, or close out before expiry, as the system is built around hedging and speculation rather than hauling bars.But in December 2025, things have gone completely off-script:
  • In the first four trading days of the month alone, over 47.6 million ounces of silver were claimed via delivery notices (equivalent to thousands of 5,000-oz contracts).
  • This massive wave of "stops" (longs taking delivery) wiped out more than 60% of COMEX's total registered silver inventory (the immediately deliverable stuff in approved vaults) in record time.
  • Reports highlight single-day highs like 7,330 contracts (~36.65 million ounces) — unprecedented depletion rates that analysts are calling a "vault drain emergency."
To put that in perspective:
  • Typical monthly delivery in past years? A tiny fraction of inventory, often in the low single-digit millions of ounces at most for major months like December.
  • This year's early-December claims alone represent a 30x+ spike over normal patterns, with the percentage of registered inventory claimed hitting levels we've never seen before (far beyond the usual <2% effective delivery rate relative to open interest).
This isn't just noise — it's a clear sign of surging real physical demand (likely from institutions, industrials, or big buyers refusing paper settlement amid ongoing supply deficits and the 2025 rally). The paper-to-physical ratio has been stretched for years, but this kind of drain exposes the fragility.Markets are closed/early today, so check the latest on the CME delivery reports when they reopen Dec 26 (YTD Issues & Stops PDF, daily notices, and Silver_stocks.xls for inventory updates). If late-December notices stay elevated toward the Dec 29 expiry, we could see even more fireworks.Stay stacked, stay physical, and happy holidays — this could be the start of something bigger in 2026!
What are your thoughts?
 
Shanghai Silver Premium Hits Record Highs – What It Means for Aussie Physical Stackers (Dec 25, 2025 Update)

G'day everyone,Just had a good yarn with Grok about the wild silver price action over the last few days, and thought I'd share the key points here since we're all about the physical stuff Down Under.
As of Christmas Eve (Dec 24, 2025, NY close):
  • Global/Western spot (COMEX/LBMA benchmark) closed around $71.91–$72.41 USD/oz (some feeds showing minor wobbles to $72.36). That's the price most of us see on Kitco, goldprice.org, Perth Mint quotes, etc.
  • But in Shanghai (physical market via SGE/SHFE), the effective price was reported as high as $77.13 USD/oz in recent updates from YouTube channels and market watchers. That's a premium of $5+ per ounce over the West – apparently a record or near-record dislocation.
What's going on?
  • Massive physical tightness in China: Huge industrial demand (solar panels going gangbusters, EVs, electronics) sucking up bars, Shanghai vaults running very low (reports of multi-year lows and big outflows earlier in Dec).
  • Arbitrage is broken – can't easily ship cheap Western silver over there fast enough due to logistics, regs, and sheer volume. So Chinese buyers are forced to pay big premiums for immediate physical delivery.
  • This isn't "paper" manipulation nonsense; it's real end-user scarcity showing up in the East while the Western paper/futures price lags.
For us in Australia:
  • Local dealers (Perth Mint, ABC, Ainslie, etc.) are still pricing off the international spot + our usual 4–10% premiums (so ~AUD$110–$125/oz for 1oz coins/bars right now, depending on product).
  • The Shanghai gap doesn't jack up our prices overnight, but it's a screaming bullish signal for physical holders/stackers.
  • History shows these kinds of East-West premiums often precede global spot catching up (hard rallies as the scarcity spreads). We've already seen silver up ~143–149% YTD in 2025 – this could be the setup for more legs higher.
  • Bottom line: If you're stacking physical (Kangaroos, Maples, bars, whatever), this looks like a solid "buy more while premiums are still reasonable" moment. Before the squeeze hits here too and local markups spike.
Caveats as always: Silver's volatile, holiday trading is thin, could pull back short-term. But the structural deficit (supply shortages + insane demand) feels very real. Anyone else tracking Shanghai premiums closely? Seen any updates on SGE inventories or local dealer stock levels over Christmas? Keen to hear your thoughts or if you've spotted better deals.
Stay stacking, legends! :)

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
 
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