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Silver Price Watch

Smithys Bullion - FINE GOLD AND SILVER
Hi Stackers,
With markets winding down for Christmas Eve (Dec 24, 2025), the big story in the silver world right now is the insane physical delivery activity on COMEX during this December contract month.Normally, COMEX silver futures see very low actual delivery rates — historically, less than 1–2% of open interest (or contracts) ever go to physical delivery. Most positions roll over, cash-settle, or close out before expiry, as the system is built around hedging and speculation rather than hauling bars.But in December 2025, things have gone completely off-script:
  • In the first four trading days of the month alone, over 47.6 million ounces of silver were claimed via delivery notices (equivalent to thousands of 5,000-oz contracts).
  • This massive wave of "stops" (longs taking delivery) wiped out more than 60% of COMEX's total registered silver inventory (the immediately deliverable stuff in approved vaults) in record time.
  • Reports highlight single-day highs like 7,330 contracts (~36.65 million ounces) — unprecedented depletion rates that analysts are calling a "vault drain emergency."
To put that in perspective:
  • Typical monthly delivery in past years? A tiny fraction of inventory, often in the low single-digit millions of ounces at most for major months like December.
  • This year's early-December claims alone represent a 30x+ spike over normal patterns, with the percentage of registered inventory claimed hitting levels we've never seen before (far beyond the usual <2% effective delivery rate relative to open interest).
This isn't just noise — it's a clear sign of surging real physical demand (likely from institutions, industrials, or big buyers refusing paper settlement amid ongoing supply deficits and the 2025 rally). The paper-to-physical ratio has been stretched for years, but this kind of drain exposes the fragility.Markets are closed/early today, so check the latest on the CME delivery reports when they reopen Dec 26 (YTD Issues & Stops PDF, daily notices, and Silver_stocks.xls for inventory updates). If late-December notices stay elevated toward the Dec 29 expiry, we could see even more fireworks.Stay stacked, stay physical, and happy holidays — this could be the start of something bigger in 2026!
What are your thoughts?
 
I don't know if I will have the courage of my conviction to do a GSR swap when the GSR tightens. Maybe I'll just swap from buying silver to buying Gold?
 
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