Silver Price Watch

[STKR]

View: https://x.com/pmbug/status/1977916602369671447

It never made sense how these repositories could add supply in a deficit market, unless silver was being shifted around and they're just capturing exisiting aboveground stock. If that's the case, then the game of musical chairs can only last so long.

I have theorised for almost a decade about what would happen when a real physical shortage took place. Looks like we're about to find out.

 

[ozcopper]

Yes, there are reports of dealers in Vietnam and other countries being out of silver due to a global shortage driven by overwhelming demand and supply constraints. This scarcity is causing empty shelves, backorders, and extremely high premiums over the spot price. Major mints and even large retailers are reportedly struggling to meet demand.

• Global supply issues:
  The shortage is a worldwide problem, affecting countries from Canada to Australia, Africa, and Vietnam.
  

• Empty shelves and backorders:
  Dealers are reporting that they are out of stock or have long waiting lists for silver products.
  
  
  
• High premiums:
  The physical silver market is experiencing extreme scarcity, causing prices to surge well above the paper "spot" price.
  
  
  
• Impact on major suppliers:
  Even large entities like the Royal Canadian Mint and Perth Mint are sold out of many products.
  
  
  
• Reasons:
  The shortage is attributed to a combination of surging demand and supply constraints, with some sources suggesting the market is under pressure.
  

 

[STKR]

Another ABC product goes into pre-order mode. This is significant because it's their own bars. They're not just a bullion dealer, they refine their own silver and produce these bars in house.

Now, the question is: Is it due to a shortage of silver or is it caused by a production bottleneck? I assume it's the latter... For now.

 

[SKULL]

It never made sense how these repositories could add supply in a deficit market, unless silver was being shifted around and they're just capturing exisiting aboveground stock. If that's the case, then the game of musical chairs can only last so long.

I have theorised for almost a decade about what would happen when a real physical shortage took place. Looks like we're about to find out.

They have been playing a Shell Game for the last 7 yrs ( some say 5 yrs, but the 1'st 2 yrs was covered by ETF outflows ) shuffling Silver around markets, Leasing & Rehypothecating Silver that not really available

But Physical demand is finally catching up with the Paper Market. Buyers aren't wanting the promise of future Silver, they have their hands out & demanding Physical Delivery.

Problem is that the warehouses are getting VERY LOW on inventory & there is no coming extra mine supply anywhere into the future. That means some will miss out on Silver unless they are prepared to Bid Up the price.

The BIG Plus for the future price is that Industrial Demand ( reported as 70% of the market ) must have their Silver or they go out of Business. If your Business/Profit is reliant on the Silver manufactured into your product, how much are you prepared to pay up to secure your supply of SILVER

 

[STKR]

They have been playing a Shell Game for the last 7 yrs ( some say 5 yrs, but the 1'st 2 yrs was covered by ETF outflows ) shuffling Silver around markets, Leasing & Rehypothecating Silver that not really available

But Physical demand is finally catching up with the Paper Market. Buyers aren't wanting the promise of future Silver, they have their hands out & demanding Physical Delivery.

Problem is that the warehouses are getting VERY LOW on inventory & there is no coming extra mine supply anywhere into the future. That means some will miss out on Silver unless they are prepared to Bid Up the price.

The BIG Plus for the future price is that Industrial Demand ( reported as 70% of the market ) must have their Silver or they go out of Business. If your Business/Profit is reliant on the Silver manufactured into your product, how much are you prepared to pay up to secure your supply of SILVER

Totally agree. Also, the lack of investment in mine development is going to kick the market in the balls. Additionally, many of Mexico's largest silver producing mines have seen their ore grades decline rapidly and were set to deplete their resources over the next 1-2 years. These are long-standing 40+ year mines that helped to put Mexico in the #1 spot as the largest silver producing country in the world.

The market is already overstretched as it is, and a reduction of 100 Moz's per year, at a time where demand is steadily increasing, would be the nail in the coffin for double digit silver.

I still factor in the 500 Moz's at the COMEX and 140 Moz's in free-float at the LBMA as "available silver", but where does that put us? 2 years of deficits? And what are the chances they'll simply allow the COMEX and LBMA to run dry? What does that mean for them?

Interesting times indeed.

 

[SKULL]

Totally agree. Also, the lack of investment in mine development is going to kick the market in the balls. Additionally, many of Mexico's largest silver producing mines have seen their ore grades decline rapidly and were set to deplete their resources over the next 1-2 years. These are long-standing 40+ year mines that helped to put Mexico in the #1 spot as the largest silver producing country in the world.

The market is already overstretched as it is, and a reduction of 100 Moz's per year, at a time where demand is steadily increasing, would be the nail in the coffin for double digit silver.

I still factor in the 500 Moz's at the COMEX and 140 Moz's in free-float at the LBMA as "available silver", but where does that put us? 2 years of deficits? And what are the chances they'll simply allow the COMEX and LBMA to run dry? What does that mean for them?

Interesting times indeed.

It's actually an old Chinese curse " May u live in interesting times " meaning Drama/Turmoil/Uncertainty will disrupt ur life.

U hit the Main Point the suppression of the Silver Price has lead to underinvestment in Silver Mining. As u allude to, the market gets a Kick in the Balls that they caused . Low prices leads to lack of development, but Higher Prices doesn't bring instant new supply.

Finding/Permitting/Developing/Supplying from a new mine takes 10 - 15 yrs. There's not going to be " New Supply " to cover the Structural Deficits already built into the system.

Just going to be some trading shit fights to see who's prepared to pay up for the Silver they need.

 

[STKR]

Finding/Permitting/Developing/Supplying from a new mine takes 10 - 15 yrs. There's not going to be " New Supply " to cover the Structural Deficits already built into the system.

Just going to be some trading shit fights to see who's prepared to pay up for the Silver they need.

100%> and regardless of whether new mines come online sooner, the deposits and ore grades aren't going to offset the decline in supply from existing mines that are going offline.

I personally think physical investment demand could blow up to such levels they need to restrict production at the mints and allocation to bullion. If we think premiums are high now, I think we'll see a massive divergence between spot and Bullion prices in the (not too distant) future.

 

[STKR]

$100 silver in AUD may arrive sooner than we think. These vertical lines are usually indicative of a sharp pullback but the price can climb much much higher before it turns around. And parabolic doesn't guarantee a reversal, it can keep going if the demand continues to increase steadily. The miners would be doing so well right now.

 

[SKULL]

100%> and regardless of whether new mines come online sooner, the deposits and ore grades aren't going to offset the decline in supply from existing mines that are going offline.

I personally think physical investment demand could blow up to such levels they need to restrict production at the mints and allocation to bullion. If we think premiums are high now, I think we'll see a massive divergence between spot and Bullion prices in the (not too distant) future.

I have no illusion that the Gov will step into the Market if supply goes Critical

I have seen reported that the MIC uses 200Moz + a year. The Gov WILL ensure their supply in supply gets to critical levels.

Remember that the USA Gov has done Gold Confiscation in the past. The closing of the Gold Window by Nixion in 1971 was also an act of confiscation.

Time will tell who becomes the most desperate to maintain their supply of Silver if the shortages turn significant.

Given Silvers Electrical/Electronic properties, I think the Big AI Players will be wanting an assured supply also ?

 

[STKR]

The market is so volatile right now. Check out the bid and ask spread on silver in USD - it's almost 45 cents! It usually sits around 4-6 cents.

 

[STKR]

I have no illusion that the Gov will step into the Market if supply goes Critical

I have seen reported that the MIC uses 200Moz + a year. The Gov WILL ensure their supply in supply gets to critical levels.

Remember that the USA Gov has done Gold Confiscation in the past. The closing of the Gold Window by Nixion in 1971 was also an act of confiscation.

Time will tell who becomes the most desperate to maintain their supply of Silver if the shortages turn significant.

Given Silvers Electrical/Electronic properties, I think the Big AI Players will be wanting an assured supply also ?

There's Gold confiscation laws already in place for Australia. None for silver, but that could change overnight.

Honestly, jewellery and physical investment demand would be the first targets. I would re-evaluate my long-term business plan if I were a bullion dealer.

 

[STKR]

It feels like we're in the 2010 equivalent of being right here:




Except all the tools they had available to smash the price back down (aboveground stockpiles, hedge exemptions and CFTC position limits) are all gone.

 

[SKULL]

It feels like we're in the 2010 equivalent of being right here:

View attachment 15072


Except all the tools they had available to smash the price back down (aboveground stockpiles, hedge exemptions and CFTC position limits) are all gone.

100% - we are nowhere near the top of the Gold/Silver bull market & I expect Silver to do a Shooting Star & eventually pull back, but at a significantly higher Base Level ( triple digit Silver base line is possible given the lack of any new significant supply into the future )

 

[STKR]

Thought it would be a while before we saw this. $100 an Oz for a kangaroo on ABC. This is helped along by their outrageous premium and inconsistent spot price that currently sits $3 higher than actual spot.

 

[SKULL]

Thought it would be a while before we saw this. $100 an Oz for a kangaroo on ABC. This is helped along by their outrageous premium and inconsistent spot price that currently sits $3 higher than actual spot.

View attachment 15073

Damn that's a bit Rich they probably manufactured those coin for less than $40 at the end of last year, for this years supply.

It's been sitting in stock & they now want $100 + for it.

They would have been buying from the mines at Wholesale ( & would have long term contracts at much lower prices ) so they are making a killing if anyone paying that price

But they probably have scared Sheeple lining up at the door

 

[Administrator]

Honestly, jewellery and physical investment demand would be the first targets.

A lot of the gold jewelry I see in retail these days is "Gold Hollow" or "Solid Core". Which basically means it's empty inside, or has a cheap metal filling. The gold is thicker than gold plating, so presumably won't wear through. A strategy to keep their price down.

 

[STKR]

A lot of the gold jewelry I see in retail these days is "Gold Hollow" or "Solid Core". Which basically means it's empty inside, or has a cheap metal filling. The gold is thicker than gold plating, so presumably won't wear through. A strategy to keep their price down.

I was just thinking of how jewellery prices would be through the roof. That's interesting. Can't say I appreciate that 'new normal' in jewellery.

 

[Administrator]

I was just thinking of how jewellery prices would be through the roof. That's interesting. Can't say I appreciate that 'new normal' in jewellery.

When I was going out with my wife I brought her a solid 9ct ring (I was a student and didn't have much money), the gold alone is now worth about $400.

 

[SKULL]

A lot of the gold jewelry I see in retail these days is "Gold Hollow" or "Solid Core". Which basically means it's empty inside, or has a cheap metal filling. The gold is thicker than gold plating, so presumably won't wear through. A strategy to keep their price down.

Yeah, the jewelers will pull every trick they can think of to keep the look of Gold but keep the price down.

There was a story a few months back about a guy that was killed when the chain around his neck ( apparently over 1 kg ) was pulled into an MRI machine & it strangled him against the MRI machine ( MRI magnets are active even when the MRI is not fully running )

The Technician would have seen the chain & thought " ahh Gold chain, not magnetic so he will be ok to visit his wife having just completed an MRI scan ".

I bet that chain was 95% steel with Gold Plating. His Tombstone would read " Killed by Bling "

 

[SKULL]

When I was going out with my wife I brought her a solid 9ct ring (I was a student and didn't have much money), the gold alone is now worth about $400.

Mate, u got away with a 9ct ring . Did ur wife not know ct or never looked at the stamp inside the ring ?