Silver prices believed to be close to the bottom
- Thread starter Aurora et Luna
- Start date
I really don't like when the whole premise of someone's value proposition for silver and gold is to look at the charts and make projections. Very few people offer detailed analysis of the physical supply and demand fundamentals. The problem with chart analysis is that there's so many real world influences in the physical markets that can cause heavy price action in each direction. Chart analysis is good for short-term trading and comparing price targets but it's absolutely terrible at forecasting mid to long-term price action.
alor said:it is not immediate, it can slowly and surely drag on 1-2 years, till people didn't even notice it happeningjason1 said:
but this time they all happen globally at the same time, just in different seasons
exactly, I think its going to creep up on them, for that reason I think we are far from the bottom, all asset classes get smashed during these times including gold and silver, they tend to rebound hard though, but the bottom has along way togo before any rebounds happen, tobe honest Id expect under $20AUD an ounce silver.
Historically silver gets smashed during financial downturns, people sell their assets to pay their living expenses, its just how it goes
jason1 said:alor said:it is not immediate, it can slowly and surely drag on 1-2 years, till people didn't even notice it happeningjason1 said:
but this time they all happen globally at the same time, just in different seasons
exactly, I think its going to creep up on them, for that reason I think we are far from the bottom, all asset classes get smashed during these times including gold and silver, they tend to rebound hard though, but the bottom has along way togo before any rebounds happen, tobe honest Id expect under $20AUD an ounce silver.
Historically silver gets smashed during financial downturns, people sell their assets to pay their living expenses, its just how it goes
Some stackers might be forced to sell portions of their stacks, but that won't be filling the LBMA or Comex vaults back up, it will probably go to other stackers.
shinymetal said:jason1 said:alor said:it is not immediate, it can slowly and surely drag on 1-2 years, till people didn't even notice it happeningjason1 said:
but this time they all happen globally at the same time, just in different seasons
exactly, I think its going to creep up on them, for that reason I think we are far from the bottom, all asset classes get smashed during these times including gold and silver, they tend to rebound hard though, but the bottom has along way togo before any rebounds happen, tobe honest Id expect under $20AUD an ounce silver.
Historically silver gets smashed during financial downturns, people sell their assets to pay their living expenses, its just how it goes
Some stackers might be forced to sell portions of their stacks, but that won't be filling the LBMA or Comex vaults back up, it will probably go to other stackers.
Yup bought by other stackers on the cheap as the small bullion market is easily flooded, ive seen it more than once, and paper contracts get sold too in mass driving spot price down even further.
Happens every single economic downturn, metal prices get crushed. there are plenty of historical charts to see thats the case, if you dont want to take my word for it.
Now they do rebound hard and fast, But they do get crushed during economic down turns, to say other wise is naive.
why I like these crash periods to buy, they tank hard, people offload, then they rebound harder than they did before. but premiums tend not to return that fast, as many stackers get gun shy and dont re-enter, if you know a crash is coming you dont buy until it happens when the other idiots who paid to much cant hold on.
go look at the charts of every financial downturn, sharp drop followed by nice big spikes, its a lovely time to buy if you have the cash
Im sure many of the veteran stackers on SS remember how many of those stupid stackers, who paid to much for their silver at the top got destroyed during that last silver crash and never returned and how it was easy pickings for low premium metals for a fair while after it even when prices started to recover.
I don't disagree with what you've said, Jason, but I will add that there has never been an environment like we're in now throughout this leg of the current monetary experiment. We're seeing big money entering the silver scene and it's possible silver could take off, and if it does experience a crash, it could merely take the price down to levels higher than we are today.
I certainly wouldn't advise someone entering the silver space for the first time to wait until the price drops in a crash. IMO the current silver prices are much lower than they should be and the price today is only held up by there being available aboveground stockpiles held in repositories that are being drained at a much more rapid rate than I anticipated.
I certainly wouldn't advise someone entering the silver space for the first time to wait until the price drops in a crash. IMO the current silver prices are much lower than they should be and the price today is only held up by there being available aboveground stockpiles held in repositories that are being drained at a much more rapid rate than I anticipated.
STKR said:
That big money you talk of is the same big money that pumped every asset class, free government stimulus money that fueled the regular guy to pay for things at any cost because after all to them it was a free gift from the gov, fueled inflation. But now its drying up, so that big money that is tied up in assets is not going to go to silver and gold very soon. when people dont have cash to buy food, pay bills, pay house repayments, they sell assets.
If people are faced with a choice between a can of over priced baked beans or an ounce of silver they will take that baked beans.
again historically that has proven tobe the case. it would have been that way in 2020 for a majority of stackers if the government didnt pump their pockets with fiat, same goes for the stock market and housing market.
It doesn't appear to be. The recent videos I've posted discuss this very thing. There appears to be a repositioning of funds taking physical delivery of metals and draining the repositories. Providing physical demand exceeds supply and there's no longer any available silver to feed the markets in times of deficit, silver will inevitably go up and go up HARD.
The thing about silver is that it is extremely versatile and has countless uses that will see demand for the metal regardless of economic stability. In the right environment, we could see silver prices go up even in times where it has historically fallen.
I feel like one of those Super funds which have a disclaimer at the end of their ads saying "past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance" but it's true. We can only use what happens in the past as a guide, but also have to recognise the differences between now and then.
The thing about silver is that it is extremely versatile and has countless uses that will see demand for the metal regardless of economic stability. In the right environment, we could see silver prices go up even in times where it has historically fallen.
I feel like one of those Super funds which have a disclaimer at the end of their ads saying "past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance" but it's true. We can only use what happens in the past as a guide, but also have to recognise the differences between now and then.
STKR said:
I know the benefits of silver and gold, as I buy it for a reason, But Like I said every financial downturn sees People selling assets.
Ive heard this same argument many times over the last two decades.
Keep in mind People still have jobs right now and people still have cash flow coming in, so there is still money floating around from all this insane government spending, but that is slowing and its getting eaten up by inflation and interest rates, People sell assets when they need to free up cash, interest rates and inflation People are going to have to look at what they can sell to cover those new and increasing costs to living.
jason1 said:
I don't disagree with you, however, I am giving more credence to the bigger fish gobbling up supply leading up to next crisis. We're already seeing it now and I think it's just getting started. Silver is a compressed spring that's been held down solely by the ability to pump physical silver into the market in the years of ongoing deficits. Once the above ground reserves in these repositories are gone, there is little holding silver back from aggressive free-market forces taking hold.
The point I'm trying to make is there is a big difference between now and before. Aboveground available stockpiles are extremely low and smart money is already taking an unprecedented interest in the metals markets. The small fish liquidating their positions would be no match for the demand from just a few big fish entering the scene. I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I doubt we'll see sub $20AUD (spot) silver again.