I sort of base my evaluations on current inventory at the LBMA and COMEX. There's about half a billion Oz's of "available" silver to be used to meet the deficits. But I actually suspect there a larger undisclosed stockpile somewhere, because the numbers don't quite add up (deficits subtracted from transparent holdings).
Silver Price Watch
- Thread starter STKR
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I sort of base my evaluations on current inventory at the LBMA and COMEX. There's about half a billion Oz's of "available" silver to be used to meet the deficits. But I actually suspect there a larger undisclosed stockpile somewhere, because the numbers don't quite add up (deficits subtracted from transparent holdings).
There are definitely undisclosed stockpiles. But there are real world limits on the supply side.
The structural deficits on the mining side can't be made up quickly or easily. Especially as the majority of the Silver supply is byproduct from other metals mining that ARE NOT planning to increase their output just for a bit extra byproduct ( Silver )
If Silver was say $500/oz maybe they would be looking at increases. But as a $58 byproduct of $5000 Gold I don't see the incentive to increase byproduct supply.
Indeed. But the stockpiles I refer to are used specifically to manage the price of silver. It's pretty telling that the price is managed when you have a 200+ Moz deficit, and instead of sitting pretty on a heap of silver that's about to explode in price, you use it to meet market demand so you can keep the price "stable". I think it's an investment into long-term price management, because if the price was allowed to explode, it would attract a tonne of investors who would drain the physical stockpiles rapidly. By intervening, you curtail investment demand and survive to manage the price for another day.
Another important thing to consider on this point is we're very close to realising PEAK Copper, lead and Zinc mining. The projections were between 2028-2032, so less silver will be mined as a byproduct of the base metals anyway. It's said we've reached peak Gold mining many years ago. Plus, we're having to mine gold much deeper into the earth's crust these days, which is usually beyond where silver is found in meaningful quantities anyway.
The only thing (and you'll find me repeating this talking point throughout this thread) that threatens Silver is how necessary it is. Sure, it's not classed as a strategic metal but it should be. In the face of a real shortage the easiest stockpile to target will be investment grade bullion and jewellery. In a real physical shortage where the world's militaries depend on the metal, making private ownership "temporarily" illegal for "national security" would be the natural course of action.
This is " speculative " I haven't looked into the details.
But my understanding it that a Gold/Lead/ Zinc/etc mining operation processes the ore to extract the metal they are chasing, say Gold. After processing they are left with " Tailings " that contains Silver.
A more specialized operation buys the tailings & processes it at their own plant to extract the Silver. So it's generally not the Gold miner that is extracting Silver. They are setup for Gold/Lead/Zinc/etc. The tailings are process by another operation that is setup for Silver extraction.
So this other operation can't supply more Silver than what they can extract from the Tailings. The initial operation isn't going to increase Tailings supply just because the secondary processor wants more Tailings to extract Silver.
Like I said, I haven't done detailed research on this.
But my understanding it that a Gold/Lead/ Zinc/etc mining operation processes the ore to extract the metal they are chasing, say Gold. After processing they are left with " Tailings " that contains Silver.
A more specialized operation buys the tailings & processes it at their own plant to extract the Silver. So it's generally not the Gold miner that is extracting Silver. They are setup for Gold/Lead/Zinc/etc. The tailings are process by another operation that is setup for Silver extraction.
So this other operation can't supply more Silver than what they can extract from the Tailings. The initial operation isn't going to increase Tailings supply just because the secondary processor wants more Tailings to extract Silver.
Like I said, I haven't done detailed research on this.
That's sort of what I understand of it, however, a copper mine is just as invested in the returns from Gold, lead, zinc and Silver. It's all factored into their feasibility studies and All In Sustaining Costs (AISC). There are a few methods to seperate each metal. They'll make a concentrate or dorè bar (for gold and silver) and sell it to a refinery. Most primary silver mines aren't even 50% silver (primary silver mines account for approximately 25-30% of global silver mine production). They rely on Gold and other base metals to remain feasible. Because most of the easy to mine silver has already been mined, this is becoming more apparent as the days go by.
All I can say is HELL FKN YES! to the rise in silver. I hope this brings new interest to the silver space and increases physical investment demand significantly. More silver in the hands of the many is a great outcome, along with a rapid decline of aboveground reserves that follows.
We can be pissed off at the suppression of silver but all they really did was provide us with decades of opportunity to obtain wealth at a discounted rate. It's the ultimate F U to the system holding real tangible assets with no counterparty risk. The only thing that worries me (because I plan to hold for the long-term) is the absolute necessity of silver for our modern technological world to exist. I think there will be a time where individual stackers are targeted. There will be little resistance from the broader population too, because so few of us actually hold Silver for it to be a problem.
@Kooka30
Oh, and this is what I think China is planning by encouraging their citizens to buy Gold and Silver. They literally have it for sale in some of their banks. Eventually, when there is a shortage, they'll make it illegal again and sweep in to collect. This is a way for China to stockpile Gold and Silver without any disclosure. Pretty fkn smart if you ask me... But also pretty fkn obvious they'll come after it in the future. Many people don't realise they stopped all exports of Silver a couple of decades ago (because they consume so much) and only made private ownership legal around 15 years ago. Now they have full campaigns running to encourage their citizens to buy it. Go figure. Even blind Freddy can see what they're up to with this.
Oh, and this is what I think China is planning by encouraging their citizens to buy Gold and Silver. They literally have it for sale in some of their banks. Eventually, when there is a shortage, they'll make it illegal again and sweep in to collect. This is a way for China to stockpile Gold and Silver without any disclosure. Pretty fkn smart if you ask me... But also pretty fkn obvious they'll come after it in the future. Many people don't realise they stopped all exports of Silver a couple of decades ago (because they consume so much) and only made private ownership legal around 15 years ago. Now they have full campaigns running to encourage their citizens to buy it. Go figure. Even blind Freddy can see what they're up to with this.
I still think ABC Bullion are up to some shenanigans with Perth Mint by pricing their kangaroos so high. $72 an ounce is far from competitive. They import Maples and Britannias and sell them for almost $5 less than an Australian minted coin. That just seems very UnAustralian to me to discourage Aussie buyers to purchase the silver kangaroo.
I bought a monster box of kangaroo's because it was the cheapest 1oz coin to buy. I think it was even from ABC themselves. Back then (2018 lows) it worked out to be $22 an Oz. It was actually amazing to see the silver market at that time. It was absolutely dead. Private sales were at spot or slightly under. Round 50c were under spot and treated like junk silver. It was hard to sell silver privately and there was little incentive compared to selling to a dealer under spot. How times have changed. I'm on a few Facebook groups and if you posted silver or gold for spot it would pretty much sell in a flash. Most of the private sellers in these groups list things for sale just slightly below dealer prices. It's so different to what it was 7 years ago.
But going full circle, nobody in their right mind should buy a silver kangaroo for $14 above spot. That's absolutely robbery to me and ABC should be called out on it.
I bought a monster box of kangaroo's because it was the cheapest 1oz coin to buy. I think it was even from ABC themselves. Back then (2018 lows) it worked out to be $22 an Oz. It was actually amazing to see the silver market at that time. It was absolutely dead. Private sales were at spot or slightly under. Round 50c were under spot and treated like junk silver. It was hard to sell silver privately and there was little incentive compared to selling to a dealer under spot. How times have changed. I'm on a few Facebook groups and if you posted silver or gold for spot it would pretty much sell in a flash. Most of the private sellers in these groups list things for sale just slightly below dealer prices. It's so different to what it was 7 years ago.
But going full circle, nobody in their right mind should buy a silver kangaroo for $14 above spot. That's absolutely robbery to me and ABC should be called out on it.
Totally agree mate. China has turned it's citizens into the piggy bank that they will raid when the time comes in the future.
If anywhere near the true holdings of PM's by China & Russia are revealed at some stage, I think the world will be stunned. I think the Chinese are playing a long game & when the time comes to show their hand they will have holdings of Gold/Silver & other base metal that will put them into a position of dictating significant parts of world policy.
The USA is blind Freddy, stumbling drunkenly, with perceived power, into a sharply different world. The USA is showing all the signs of a decaying/declining empire. At some point they will be shocked into reality, but it will be too late. The world will have changed & the USA will not be dictating the future.
I think Perth Mint is deliberately pricing Silver coins High because they don't want to actually be selling large quantities of Silver. I think the supply of Silver is tightening & they know it. So the incentive is to hang onto the Silver & wait until Silver is revalued into the triple digits.
When Silver is in the triple digits, they will be happy to sell for that price the Silver they acquired much cheaper.
Perth Mint knows that Silver is going to be repriced. So hang onto the Silver now & sell at much higher prices in the future.
we know clearly only USA has such practice
1933 Gold Confiscation Poster FDR Executive Order 6102 - (Enhanced REPRODUCTION) | eBay
1933 Gold Confiscation Poster FDR Executive Order 6102 - (Enhanced REPRODUCTION) | Coins & Paper Money, Coins: US, Gold (Pre-1933) | eBay!
www.ebay.com.sg
Ahhh, I don't think there's much merit to that evaluation tbh. I might even send ABC an email asking for the exact reason why they price their kangaroos so high?
ABC certainly wouldn't have a business model to hold on to silver because they predict the price will increase. They don't really care what the price is because they'll hedge against their inventory. They would, however, care about sales like any other Bullion dealer.
Where I was thinking there may be a bit of a conspiracy is there seems to be a campaign amongst some goverment mints to deter investment of their bullion coins - Like in the US with their silver eagle program. I do wonder if Perth Mint has made an arrangement with (what I assume would be) their biggest reseller - ABC Bullion - in an attempt to reduce overall physical demand. I think it's more to prolong the inevitable shortage of silver, rather than holding on to silver to make more money selling it in the future. I'm really not sure though but I do know it's extremely suspicious to price Australia's silver kangaroo $5 above other foreign mint products. It may be something as simple as ABC only being allocated a certain amount of coins from the mint per year and they price them that way to ensure they can continue to offer them. Dunno, it all seems fishy to me.
Edit to add: BTW the price isn't because of Perth Mint. This is a decision made from ABC Bullion. Other dealers price the kangaroos much cheaper
BullionNow list them for $65, so they can definitely buy them cheaper than that.
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we know clearly only USA has such practice
1933 Gold Confiscation Poster FDR Executive Order 6102 - (Enhanced REPRODUCTION) | eBay
1933 Gold Confiscation Poster FDR Executive Order 6102 - (Enhanced REPRODUCTION) | Coins & Paper Money, Coins: US, Gold (Pre-1933) | eBay!www.ebay.com.sg
Exactly. Funny enough there's already a legal pathway to gold confiscation in Australia. There isn't for silver though (yet).
Very difficult to sort out all the stories/theories/bullshit that floats around the price of Gold/Silver.
We each have to evaluate & make a decision for ourselves.
Such is life.
I was looking at the 2025 Kangaroo & the I saw the other side. Shit Charles portrait is absolute crap. I wouldn't touch a 2025 coin.
Just have to wait for a King William Coin.
The only cool thing about government issues coins is they have a monetary denomination. Although $1 is a bit fkn rediculous. Some of the 90's and 91 kooks have a $5 Denom and I even have a few Olympic Games coins that have a $10 denom, which is pretty unique.
Have you seen some of the silver shield rounds?
BRICS.
Rubs me the wrong way when I see folks on X ripping off other people's work and posting it as if it were their own. Here's the original author's tweet:
View: https://x.com/pmbug/status/1943604993182892209