Silver Price Watch
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Update: I checked out the process of FOIA requests and I'd need to do a blanket spamming of requests to multiple departments. I did an extensive search on the FOIA website for information relating to silver depositories, silver stockpiles, silver inventories and silver storage facilities to no avail.
I have reached out to GATA.org and Sound Money Defense league to see if they have any information/data on the subject, so before I submit a FOIA request, I will await for their response. Standard FOIA requests take around 116 days to fulfil and it would be best to understand all possible departments that may hold such information to submit a request with each one simultaneously, rather than wait 4 months to learn one department doesn't handle such things.
It would be so easy for the department of defence to manage stockpiles and not have a responsibility to declare it. It's also possible the Federal Reserve or private entities have silver holdings and don't need to declare it to the public.
Another possibility is the LBMA, SLV and COMEX are the only ones feeding the market in times of deficit, and the vault data is inaccurate or includes more 'double counting' than expected.
We may never get any insight until aboveground stockpiles deplete and we see a real physical shortage in the market. It would just be nice to have a better idea of how long 150-200 million Oz deficits could be sustained.
I have reached out to GATA.org and Sound Money Defense league to see if they have any information/data on the subject, so before I submit a FOIA request, I will await for their response. Standard FOIA requests take around 116 days to fulfil and it would be best to understand all possible departments that may hold such information to submit a request with each one simultaneously, rather than wait 4 months to learn one department doesn't handle such things.
It would be so easy for the department of defence to manage stockpiles and not have a responsibility to declare it. It's also possible the Federal Reserve or private entities have silver holdings and don't need to declare it to the public.
Another possibility is the LBMA, SLV and COMEX are the only ones feeding the market in times of deficit, and the vault data is inaccurate or includes more 'double counting' than expected.
We may never get any insight until aboveground stockpiles deplete and we see a real physical shortage in the market. It would just be nice to have a better idea of how long 150-200 million Oz deficits could be sustained.
I was checking out supply and demand for investment grade bullion per country. I must say, on a per capita basis Australia absolutely rocks! We're doing our job to secure silver in the hands of the people. In the last 5 years we've averaged 14 million Oz's a year, with 2022 being the highest at 20.7 Million Oz's. That's almost an ounce for every man, woman and child in this country, and approximately 10% of global demand for investment grade bullion. Per capita, we lead the way with investment demand, followed by Germany and the US. I think that's something we should be proud of. If the whole world followed Australia, we'd see a whopping 3-6 Billion Oz's in investment demand each year. Of course, the mints and other producers wouldn't be able to keep up, but it just shows us there's more stackers in Australia than one may think.
And here's something of historical interest... The report that led to the creation of the Silver Eagle using their National defence strategic stockpile.
www.gao.gov
National Defense Requirements for a Silver Stockpile
The United States stockpiles 93 commodities having strategic and critical importance to national defense. To determine stockpile policy and goals for...
I've just stumbled across what appears to be a group of analysts who are challenging the Silver Institute's yearly surveys and plan to release their own surveys to fill in the missing gaps. They call themselves 'The Silver Academy'. I can't find any website for them but they do have a substack profile:
thesilverindustry.substack.com
They seem very serious about exposing the true supply and demand fundamentals of silver.
The Silver Academy to Report on All the Metal Missing in Silver Institute's so-called "World Silver Survey."
The Silver Academy will merge its Global Silver Report with Silver Institute's World Silver Survey.
thesilverindustry.substack.com
They seem very serious about exposing the true supply and demand fundamentals of silver.
Another cool resource I've stumbled across is silverwars.org
I'm starting to think that maybe whatever the LBMA, SLV and COMEX has in their vaults is the only silver available. I still intend to spend the next couple of weeks investigating this though. I've also sent Silverwars.org an email asking if they have any information on US stockpiles.
I'm starting to think that maybe whatever the LBMA, SLV and COMEX has in their vaults is the only silver available. I still intend to spend the next couple of weeks investigating this though. I've also sent Silverwars.org an email asking if they have any information on US stockpiles.
FYI FWIW:
The Silver Academy - WTF?
Jon Forest Little runs a Substack channel called The Silver Academy. He has also been a contributing author for articles posted on silverseek, goldseek et al and been a guest on podcasts such as Bix Weir's youtube channel. That's about the extent of what I know about the guy...
I think it's about time we see $80 silver. Mexico is currently the top producer but many of their mines are set to go offline due to depletion over the next few years. We will inevitably see a decrease in mine supply, and with the introduction of Samsung's solid-state batteries, along with a continued increase in demand for solar panels, we should see a significant widening of the deficit - likely to the tune of 300+ Million Oz's.
Heres some cool figures for investment demand:
Between 2000-2005 - total investment demand was a meager 170 Million Oz's. The biggest year was in 2005 at 42 Million Oz's.
Between 2019-2024 - total investment demand was a whopping 1.26 Billion ozs. The biggest year was in 2022 at 338 Million Oz's (almost 2x the investment of 2000-2005 combined in one year and 40% of mine supply going to just minting coins and bars!).
The 2008-2011 bull run was the beginning of silver becoming more recognised by the people of the world, and it has remained at a steady average of 200+ Mozs a year.
Although silver has seen a nice flow of investment demand since 2008, investment demand was extremely low all the years prior. Some years only saw 15-20 million Oz's, and anything over 40 million Oz's was extremely uncommon.
The moment silver begins it's next journey to $50 and beyond, the increase in investment demand could easily exceed 400 Mozs, which will further exacerbate the deficit and put considerable stress on the physical market. We will likely see parabolic moves in silver that will surprise us all.
Heres some cool figures for investment demand:
Between 2000-2005 - total investment demand was a meager 170 Million Oz's. The biggest year was in 2005 at 42 Million Oz's.
Between 2019-2024 - total investment demand was a whopping 1.26 Billion ozs. The biggest year was in 2022 at 338 Million Oz's (almost 2x the investment of 2000-2005 combined in one year and 40% of mine supply going to just minting coins and bars!).
The 2008-2011 bull run was the beginning of silver becoming more recognised by the people of the world, and it has remained at a steady average of 200+ Mozs a year.
Although silver has seen a nice flow of investment demand since 2008, investment demand was extremely low all the years prior. Some years only saw 15-20 million Oz's, and anything over 40 million Oz's was extremely uncommon.
The moment silver begins it's next journey to $50 and beyond, the increase in investment demand could easily exceed 400 Mozs, which will further exacerbate the deficit and put considerable stress on the physical market. We will likely see parabolic moves in silver that will surprise us all.
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And how's this... 'Government sales' added over 550 million Oz's to the supply of Silver between 2000-2009. The numbers for each year weren't random either, they perfectly matched the shortfall in supply vs demand. The survey's show direct market intervention from what I can only assume is the US treasury. This is happening while the US declares they have no silver in strategic reserves. Where did they store this silver? And why isn't the data available to the public? This is why I believe there's continued market intervention, and why inventories at the LBMA and COMEX don't add up. How can they claim to add millions of Oz's while the silver market is in a deficit? All signs point to undisclosed stockpiles. The good news is; there's indications of these stockpiles depleting, because around the time of 2014-2015, the government sales weren't even remotely close enough to meeting the deficit, and after 2015 they stopped being recorded altogether.
What I want to know is; how did The Silver Institute, Metals Focus etc gain access to this data to begin with.
What I want to know is; how did The Silver Institute, Metals Focus etc gain access to this data to begin with.
So GFMS (Global Financial Market Service) supplied the data during this time. Eventually, The Silver Institute began receiving their data from Metals Focus. I wonder if rather than government sales no longer being a factor since 2015, they just simply weren't provided to Metals Focus. This topic has fascinated me since I first went through every silver survey back in 2018. Everyone talks about the COMEX intervening in the paper makers but nobody discusses the REAL driver behind the manipulation of silver... That being the intention to use physical stockpiles to feed the millions of hungry mouths. You'd think all the silver guru's would make this their top priority, because without understanding exactly how much ammunition they have, all the chart analysis, GSR talk, supply and demand fundamentals etc are meaningless if you have an entity hellbent on using their reserves to manage the price of silver.
This is a very interesting read.
cpmgroup.com
In fear of the overextending my enthusiasm for the metal, I'll spare you my analysis.
Silver’s Strength Is That It Is Neither Strategic Nor Critical |
The last thing that the silver market needs are the governmental burdens, that would come with the metal being strategic or critical
cpmgroup.com
In fear of the overextending my enthusiasm for the metal, I'll spare you my analysis.
Dude, we get it! But technology is way out there doing different things than a lump of silver did in the 50's. Synthetics and a multitude of other organisms out in the wild as i call them, the market at this stage is not interested in bullion silver at the moment.
And that could be a good thing. The more it's consumed by its industrial counterpart the less available it is in investment form. Investment demand isn't really what makes silver exciting to me from a supply/demand angle anyway. The complexities of industrial demand and silver being at the forefront of innovation is what's most exciting. Investment demand just pushes silver over the edge and forces it into a deficit.
