Silver Price Watch
- Thread starter STKR
- Start date
I'm negative for saying this but something doesn't feel right. Also, I've never really understood the whole rolling over of commercial short positions? There have been claims that the commercial banks have long-standing short positions and see significant unrealised losses when the price goes up. Has anyone ever heard of these claims? I've never looked into it, so I don't actually know for sure. If it were the case then there'd be an expectation the commercials would need to heavily short silver and push the price down to a level where they can finally close off their positions to allow silver to climb in price significantly. When I think about that, the whole idea of perpetually rolling over of shorts seems unrealistic.
Who is short?
Man, you've really misunderstood what I've said. I was just referring to the claim that the short positions don't close, they just get added to and rolled over. I think the claim originated from the Max Keiser times of 'Buy Silver, Crash JP Morgan". That the price of silver would need to make a massive correction before it can rise to new heights, as they would need to close off their short positions.
Of course shorts are legal. I don't know why you felt the need to state that to me.
From what I have read in the last few weeks, it's now only " JP Morgan & Citi " that are shorting Silver. They are believed to be holding massive short positions, that if called on, could even lead to Bankruptcy ! That would be Very Interesting to see & I think would unleash the price of Silver.
I do question how much pain they could actually be in if the price went up. All those years of market manipulation and profiting from it, I wonder if it helps prop up their positions. The Silver market is quite small, so there isn't much at risk to manage the price. In 2011 the CFTC changed the rules to limit position sizes for everyone but the commercials who had "bonafide hedge exemptions". This meant they had limited competition on the buying side and were able to place massive short positions without being run out by "speculators".
Technically, the big bullion banks can place positions on behalf of their clients. I think it was the crew at GATA that once speculated that JPM was shorting silver on behalf of the US Government. There have been so many claims about silver and market manipulation in the past, and most of them are unfounded. It's hard to know what to believe, so I just stick with the supply and demand fundamentals - knowing that when we have a real silver shortage (aboveground stocks deplete), all forms of paper manipulation will no longer be possible. The challenge is then knowing how much silver "They" have available to continue. I reckon we have 3 years or less before we see triple digit silver, and the price will be dumped at some point between now and then to allow it to happen.
I would agree with u that 3 years is a very reasonable time frame for the banks to try & get out of their shorts before the supply side issues force their hands.
The 1 " conspiracy theory " that I think has merit, is that the MIC ( military industrial complex ) has a very large stake in the price of Silver. Just 1 example is that Tomahawk/Cruise missiles contains 15 + Kg ( yes, Kilograms ) of silver in each 1. I have seen estimates that the MIC consumes over 200 Million + oz/year of Silver. So a lower price is beneficial to the MIC.
The MIC has vast amounts of money & huge budgets to run. So if some major Banking Institutions were managing those massive MIC budgets, it would not be so hard to believe that those vast amounts of money could be used to help the MIC in purchasing their Silver at the lowest price possible.
1 issue that I know is pure speculation, but the estimate is that over the last 40 + yrs the Pentagon/DoD can't account for an estimated $21 TRILLION dollars. That figure is speculation, but it's a fact that the Pentagon/DoD hasn't past an audit in 7 + yrs & they acknowledge that TRILLIONS of dollar worth of ( supposedly ) purchased equipment ( over that 40 + yrs period ) can't be accounted for.
A few pages back in this thread has covered a bit of the MIC silver consumption. I have never seen any evidence for 500ozs or 15kg of silver used in a cruise missile, or any other missile for that. But the MIC would consume a decent amount of silver, whether it be directly or indirectly. The team at the 'Silver Academy' were meant to do a report that outlined the MIC consumption but that kind of fizzled out. If you can dig up any information on this, that would be appreciated.
It would appear that The Silver Institute is a captured entity that intentionally under reports or completely disregards certain demand fields. It's just a shame that's all we have to work with... But either way, the supply and demand fundamentals are still very grim with a 200Moz deficit.