Silver Price Watch
- Thread starter STKR
- Start date
I might be crazy...
Silver might 10x within the next 3 years
Sounds crazy, right? Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. I'll explain my thinking and you decide... Four Years of Structural Deficit Draining Vault Inventories Silver has been in a structural deficit for the last four years. Demand (mostly industrial, investment demand is fairly insignificant in...www.pmbug.com
That's a very thorough analysis of the situation at hand. I really do wonder about undisclosed stockpiles though. Between 2020 and early 2021, SLV listed a 311 Moz acquisition of Silver. During the same period, the Comex and LBMA listed over 100 Moz's collectively to their holdings. This didn't come from the market and I can't help but be curious where close to 500 Moz's came from.
One thing I've noticed is during the 2008-2011 run, there was so much hype and excitement in the market; only to have Silver underperform for almost a decade after. This was really effective at destroying any enthusiasm for stackers who bought in at that time. Now, imagine if there's a 2 Billion Oz stockpile that the Comex, LBMA and SLV can tap into, topping up their vaults when needed. Letting the price run up, only to beat it down for years and years thereafter. This has proven to be a great psychological tool to curb physical investment.
Then there's the clear intention to reduce the world's population. You know what's funny about that? I think silver is the driving force behind the sustainability agenda! It's the most necessary resource that appears to be at the closest to levels of unsustainability. To think what many of us view as our security from the system may ironically be what destroys us all.
But damn, that's enough pessimism for the night. I like your analysis and I personally held the view that we'd likely see a shortage between the years of 2028-2032. Because you like to analyse the fundamentals like me, if you haven't already, you should look at when we're set to reach peak Copper, Lead and Zinc mining. Less production of those base metals will translate in less byproduct mining of silver. Then (if you haven't already) check out the major mines in Mexico that are set to deplete their reserves by 2028. From memory there were 4-5 of them. Mine supply for silver beyond 2028 is dire, and the world has no way of sustaining itself unless our consumption drops off significantly.
Mexico could run out of silver by 2026, worsening supply deficit – Richard Mills
2024.01.13 The world’s largest silver producer could mine all of its existing reserves […]
aheadoftheherd.com
I've researched sea-bed mining and it is extremely destructive. On top of the Environmental red tape that surrounds such activities, there's some serious challenges and costs surrounding such activities, especially if you consider the pressures you can encounter the deeper you go.
Recently China found oil in the depth of their dessert, it get exploited. Not the cheapest, but worthy. So metals mining also follow the vein of active volcanoes, the magma flow will bring out the gold or silver pillars. Never know the bible talk about the great abundance.
The biggest problem any resource, especially metals is they have a limited annual production capacity. You'd need to find massive deposits in a favourable location to justify an open pit mine (which will still only produce 40 Million Oz's a year), and you'd need 10 of them to really impact the markets in a meaningful way from mine supply.
Most of them are tiny. The mine life would be less than a few years. I'll try dig up an infographic map I've seen showing all the known deposits.
Here it is. All the largest deposits already have a mine on them:
To give context to scale: 500 tonnes is 16 Million Oz's. Most smaller mines will produce 10 million Oz's a year. Larger mines will produce 40+ Million.
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From the lil i know most of theyre resources usually exploited by other countries, hopefully not so with silver
Cannington and s32 had decent mine but reserves possibly running low and bhp and olympic, slv-silver mines desposit been doing shit all for years but they have large area in nsw i believe
This would be an ideal bounce off $30 USD and the moving average on the daily charts.
What I find funny is I had a mate call me up today (who owns no silver) screaming how he just looked at the charts and silver is about to break out
asking me how does go about getting in on it haha. His timing was impeccable because these are the exact indicators you want to be looking for to enter the market. But it's not the first time silvers performance has failed to meet expectations. A close below $30 would be devastating.
What I find funny is I had a mate call me up today (who owns no silver) screaming how he just looked at the charts and silver is about to break out
asking me how does go about getting in on it haha. His timing was impeccable because these are the exact indicators you want to be looking for to enter the market. But it's not the first time silvers performance has failed to meet expectations. A close below $30 would be devastating.