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Jeffrey Christian: 2024-25 Will Bring Recession, Unrest, Along With Higher Precious Metals Prices

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Jeff discusses the current economic outlook and the various contentious views on gold investment. Some economists argue that there won't be another recession and that inflation is low enough.However, others believe that problems will emerge in the future, including increased recession, financial market instability, and political instability. Jeff notes that inflation is expected to remain in a range of 3-4.5% for the next year or two, and food inflation remains a major concern.

He also addresses misconceptions about government statistics, such as the CPI and PPI, and emphasizes the adjustments made are to provide accurate economic measurements. Jeff mentions the increasing transparency of central banks and their purchases of gold to offset the collapse of private sector demand in certain countries. He clarifies that the US Treasury has not been "dumping" the US dollar but has sold treasuries due to changing interest rates.

In terms of investment demand for gold and silver, Jeff notes that investors have the flexibility to buy or sell depending on current prices, creating a dynamic market. He mentions the increasing demand for silver due to its industrial applications and the changing dynamics within the auto industry.

Jeff concludes by discussing the CPM Group's predictions for gold and silver prices, expecting them to rise in the coming year. As part of their services, CPM Group offers free resources and reports for clients and provides market alerts on long-term economic outlooks, debt, deficit, and gold.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Military Silver Usage
5:54 - Gold's Various Roles
11:45 - Gold Market Asymmetry
12:56 - Short Term PM Headwinds?
16:57 - Inflation From Here
20:38 - Energy & Oil Reserves
22:32 - Questioning Biases
28:27 - Central Bank Buying
34:00 - China & Treasuries
36:56 - Misleading Datapoints
40:20 - Silver Demand Roles
46:19 - Tech. & Auto Industry
50:50 - Platinum & Palladium
51:38 - Debt Distractions
54:18 - Tumultuous Election?
55:47 - Gold Price Predictions
58:55 - Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode
- Jeff estimates that 10-20 million ounces of silver are used globally for defense each year, mostly in the US.
- Gold investment demand is driven by six main factors that traders should consider.
- CPM Group offers market alerts and other free resources to clients to help them make informed investment decisions in gold and silver.

 
I don't think Jeff is capturing the whole picture in his analysis here, as his focus is on missiles and batteries. The majority of equipment used by the military is outsourced to private companies. It would be quite difficult to calculate the true annual consumption for the US military but If you're only looking at the silver used in missiles and batteries, you won't even come close to it.

Silver becoming a strategic metal from a military perspective will change the landscape of the market completely. Most stackers see a global silver shortage as a good thing but it could actually be the worst thing. I've said a few times that a technologically advanced military is dependant on the supply of silver. There aren't any silver confiscation laws in place in the US or Australia (or anywhere else that I know of in the western world) but I could almost guarantee governments wouldn't hesitate to make private ownership illegal if faced with a significant shortages that compromised the military and national security interests. This would be especially true during a World War like it has been in the past with other base metals.

I did find it curious that China banned exports of gold and silver bullion and banned it's citizens from holding/buying Gold and Silver. I think they lifted the ban of private ownership (2015?) as a move to acquire strategic reserves. It wasn't just lifting the ban that was most interesting, it was the fact they began a campaign to encourage their citizens to buy Gold and Silver. I think it's simply a smart play to acquire (imported) reserves with the absolute intention to ban it again in the future. It's a strategic reserve for them to utilise when it's needed.
 
But this was a very interesting video. Probably one of the top conversations about Silver and Gold I've heard in a long time.
 
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