dealer premiums are utter fucken shit atm

[jason1]

first time silver drop below 18.40 there was 3% discount for 10 oz heraeus bar
but
when silver drop to below 17.76 which is lower then July drop, there is no discount.

so even with lower spot price, but stronger USD, we cannot even get close to a bargain

may be next time

It feels like the calm before the storm. I saw a post that was saying Perth Mint had significant delays with requests to convert (un)allocated metals into bars for delivery.

I recon they are full of shit. IMO they are holding out. they can mint less product for more money if they limit supply and keep the bucks up, minting out high premium coins over bars, I highly doubt its high demand.  we saw during covid a manic rush to buy silver and gold when the mints were closed and when the wall street silver guys on reddit were going nuts buying everything , we arent seeing that right now.
that excuse was believable then, but they arent doing those silver pushes as hard as they did for that 12 months or so.
I have a lack of trust in the Physical market these days as far as mints go. I recon they are rigging prices with limiting supply.

 

[Serial]

you picked one part of what i said, its part of being in the metal market, you have a market price and if you pay to much you lose. well thats how it used to work which is capitalism lol, I guess they just need to hold on and find a sucker who is willing to pay high in a declining market, that has never happened before.

Ive looked at a number of dealers as i always do. buying from a dealer theres always been a premium obviously but man that % is scewed badly.

you would be nuts to buy from a mint or dealer right now.

lol i think that your slaving under a misconception here. free market capitalism is the ability to decide what you are willing to trade at a value assigned by you. if my computer tells me spot is worth $5 that doesn't mean my silver is worth that. if someone is willing to pay me $50 its worth that and i am able to decide if that is a value i am willing to sell at.i think the problem here is that your comparing the spot price(an entirely theoretical value that is based upon the largest number of trades which unfortunately are almost entirely paper, not real physical)if 10 people want 5 coins that a dealer is selling then they are likely to compete for it and its value is based upon what the 5 successful people are willing to pay to obtain it when others want it. 1/10 gold coins are in demand and as such you have people deciding they will pay a premium for the same thing you want for spot. thats price discovery and when everything is so disconnected from the "spot price" like you describe that means the market is manipulated and you need to aim your anger elsewhere.

 

[Serial]

I recon they are full of shit. IMO they are holding out. they can mint less product for more money if they limit supply and keep the bucks up, minting out high premium coins over bars, I highly doubt its high demand.
I have a lack of trust in the Physical market these days as far as mints go. I recon they are rigging prices with limiting supply.

or alternatively they actually have limited supply of real silver and are covering it up after issuing to much paper silver

 

[jason1]

I recon they are full of shit. IMO they are holding out. they can mint less product for more money if they limit supply and keep the bucks up, minting out high premium coins over bars, I highly doubt its high demand.
I have a lack of trust in the Physical market these days as far as mints go. I recon they are rigging prices with limiting supply.

or alternatively they actually have limited supply of real silver and are covering it up after issuing to much paper silver

they are a government mint, they are full of shit. they rigged the paper market and rigging the physical market

 

[spannermonkey]

You have no idea .
Your opinion doesn't matter & want change facts .

 

[jason1]

lol i think that your slaving under a misconception here. free market capitalism is the ability to decide what you are willing to trade at a value assigned by you. if my computer tells me spot is worth $5 that doesn't mean my silver is worth that. if someone is willing to pay me $50 its worth that and i am able to decide if that is a value i am willing to sell at.i think the problem here is that your comparing the spot price(an entirely theoretical value that is based upon the largest number of trades which unfortunately are almost entirely paper, not real physical)if 10 people want 5 coins that a dealer is selling then they are likely to compete for it and its value is based upon what the 5 successful people are willing to pay to obtain it when others want it. 1/10 gold coins are in demand and as such you have people deciding they will pay a premium for the same thing you want for spot. thats price discovery and when everything is so disconnected from the "spot price" like you describe that means the market is manipulated and you need to aim your anger elsewhere.
[/quote]


when they say hey trust us the paper market is legit, we say we cant trust you guys your rigging the market.
But when they say- hey we dont have enough stock to supply demand and thats why premiums are high, has nothing todo with us slamming high premiums to create higher profit for less output ,  we say oh fair enough, we trust you


they spent two years fighting with those wallstreetsilver guys saying they have massive amounts of silver when the demand was insanely high due to wallstreet silvers runs on the mints, now they are saying they dont have enough. so heres why spot prices are low but premiums are high ahaha lol
Even though those mint runs have stopped almost a year ago.

IMO they have rigged both paper and physical market. pushed down the price they buy their metals for and pushed up the prices they sell their metals to us for. Most of these major mints are Government mints, and its the governments who own them that are making money from it, governments who dont like you betting against the economy, IMO paying those premiums is playing into their hands, you end up paying to much for something in a rigged market.

 

[jason1]

So yes spot price does matter as thats the price they use to gauge what price they purchase the metals from the mining companies,
they are still buying their metals on the spot price metric from mining companies, and from the scrap side.
its easy to remove supply to raise demand.

push down the price they buy the shit for by the paper market and keep the physical price high for what they sell it to us for, all they have to do is limit the amount they put up for sale. why wouldnt they?
and how do they do that? they just keep it in their vaults, sell paper contracts on mass, and not release as much physical and what they do release they tack on a huge premium and  say there isnt enough supply.

so yer to say spot price doesnt have anything todo with physical price, go tell that to a mining company who sells to these refineries who use spot as their base line to the metals.

Im not saying spot price isnt rigged,I agree with you that is is, but what Im saying that in my opinion is these guys have moved into rigging the physical market as well,
they buy really low and sell it really high.

while paper Spot price is rigged, ignoring premiums and ignoring spot completely leaves you open to holding the bag in a rigged market and being shafted by these guys.

 

[jason1]

You have no idea .
Your opinion doesn't matter & want change facts .

PS
we are saying people cant have opinions here? are we now doing the shut your mouth your opinion doesnt matter thing here? I think you belong on the other forum.
debate the topic fine, leave the shutting down of opinions to silver stackers with the dictator over there.

Opinions always matter bro, even if the opinion is wrong or you dont agree with it, but saying some ones opinion doesnt matter, doesnt help debate and we saw over the last three years the result of the dismissal of peoples opinions, we ended up losing the ability to have one.
that maybe something you like but its not what most of us here on this forum like.

this forum has a vast number of varying opinions with people debating each other. Some I dont agree with and some of my opinions others dont agree with, thats fine, But this is the first time Ive seen some one tell another person their opinions do not matter, as a means to shut down debate they dont agree with. one thing all us regulars agree on is that sort of shut down really doesnt have a place on this forum.

 

[spannermonkey]

I'm telling you ,your opinion want change the premiums
You keep going on that premiums are a rip off - your opinion .
NOTHING has been coming in the door for 2 weeks now .
I'm paying above spot for most things just to get stock & still nothing .
So why should I keep my premiums down ?

 

[jason1]

I'm telling you ,your opinion want change the premiums
You keep going on that premiums are a rip off - your opinion .
NOTHING has been coming in the door for 2 weeks now .
I'm paying above spot for most things just to get stock & still nothing .
So why should I keep my premiums down ?

Where did it say I expected my opinion to change the premiums?
No where did I mention any such thing. if you dont like the convo walk away, If you dont think the convo achieves anything, walk away. I did not expect my opinion to change anything, its a bloody conversation and my thoughts, as is the thoughts of others who did not agree with me.

Others came here they expressed their views, they didnt agree with my view fine,I dont expect others to agree in fact I enjoy a convo where people dont agree, it avoids an echo chamber, I can see other peoples points of view, But none of the others who came here, tried to shut the debate down.
Pull your head in.

Its like some where along the lines People have forgotten what conversations are about and how to conduct them with out shutting others down.

 

[Serial]

I find it funny that your railing against a system that allows mints, governments etc to manipulate the market with paper and in the same breath complain when the market starts to break free from the system and fund its natural and real value. I recently paid way more than spot for 50s just so I could sell them on forum just to stay relevant and because no one had any listed for awhile. No one payed me a small premium and I'm better off selling them at auctions where I have seen them sell $16 + BP!
I will admit it applies me as well but us stackers have been spoilt for a while now and are struggling to adjust to the market demand surging

 

[jason1]

I find it funny that your railing against a system that allows mints, governments etc to manipulate the market with paper and in the same breath complain when the market starts to break free from the system and fund its natural and real value. I recently paid way more than spot for 50s just so I could sell them on forum just to stay relevant and because no one had any listed for awhile. No one payed me a small premium and I'm better off selling them at auctions where I have seen them sell $16 + BP!
I will admit it applies me as well but us stackers have been spoilt for a while now and are struggling to adjust to the market demand surging

No im saying its not a natural separation IMO. the retail bullion market is small and its very easy for the mints to price gouge, easy to release less product and charge more cash for it, limit supply. its done al lthe time on many things, but we cant except that maybe just maybe the mints are doing the same to us on the retail end.
Keep your vaults full, sell paper which keeps the market low as a result the cost they buy the product gold/silver down, but limit flow out allows higher mark up. 

I could bet you if they released all the gold these mints have and put it in bar form and dropped it on the market in physical only, we would really see what premiums would be, when the market is flooded.
the retail bullion market is not a big market.  it would be an easy market to flood but equally an easy market to limit supply when talking retail bullion. If the government doesnt want the regular guy to own they just limit supply and make it to expensive for people to own it.

I find it more interesting that your saying the paper market is manipulated but then saying the same people wouldnt manipulate the physical market with High premiums which they have the ability todo by suppression of goods they produce. shit places like super markets do this all the time with their goods, but no a government controlled mint would ever do that right? lol.

Im saying the entire system is rigged. why would they give you the ability to buy cheap product and accumulate more wealth in physical form when they bring down the spot prices? they want you to buy paper not physical, governments can track that ownership. and so they make it so if people are silly enough to pay those premiums they are happy to line their pockets as a result and make it so you cant really make a buck, so they make you lose either way.


People will never get ahead if they buy their metals high when market price is low and constantly buying metals for more when market spot price is low.

Im not one of those guys who has an expensive over spot priced stacks. the cost average of my stack AUD is $19.82 per ounce for silver and $1793 per ounce for gold. I have a few thousand ounces of silver all under $20 an ounce average, 20 ounces of gold Under $1793 an ounce , they have allot of spot price manipulating todo before I lose,
avoiding stupid purchases has kept me in the green for a very long time, ive already beaten the paper market. so the occasional vanity buy of a few 1/10s here and there doesnt upset my average price much, But i wouldn't be backing up the truck at these premium prices. its insane, but each to their own. there are smart times to buy and there are stupid times. and this is a stupid time to buy. If i had of taken the stupid tactic of buying all the time ignoring spot and premiums I wouldnt be ahead of the paper market id be well and truly be behind it. I dont have to fuck around flipping coins with a premium attached to get ahead of the game. fuck thats to much work,
So while my stack isnt huge, its an good size but not massive, I know There are very few stupid purchases with in it, which has allowed me to buy much more for my money because while knowing the spot price is rigged ive used it to my advantage by also taking into consideration of premiums. If i followed this line of thinking of ignoring premiums my stack would be far smaller for more money.

It likely doesnt help that many in the stacking community made it easier for them since many have adopted the same principles we see with crytpo guys, who have this stupid idea that it doesn't matter what the market is doing, keep buying and hope it equals out in the end, lol thats made it easier for these pricks to jack up prices, the ratio of silly buyers who ignore fundamentals is leading the the charge.  people who think because the system is rigged we should ignore it and keep buying no matter what, instead of seeing the system is rigged and using it to your advantage.



PS
I will concede I was harsh on retail outlets for lumping them in with government mints and refineries, My beef is more towards the mints and major refineries which is where i truly think this is where its happening.






edited: to ad all info into one post instead of making 20 different posts

 

[Serial]

If you truly believe that then sell your gold?
I however think the opposite, I bethat the mints and refiners cannot get enough to fulfil demand. That they are selling gold they don't even have.that they are continuing to keep prices down by issuing paper metals and that the flow in effect on industry would be devastating if they got called to deliver everything they have issued paper for. When they come unstuck the price will eclipse the premiums you see now and that the premiums are the natural market response to a manipulated market.
Mints and refiners usually make the same amount no matter the spot price, stability is their ideal market

 

[alor]

the measuring stick USD itself is just like a rubber band, the running of QE and printing press.
BRICS is trying to find a stable exchange, it is not the USD, so that are accepted by all their members for their trades.
T-Bills are no longer RISK-free, they can be FROZEN.
unlike oil and gas, PRICE CAP, EU back down from such an act, but its just too late now.
Cannot imagine trying to cap the prices with rubber bands, silver cap or metals cap work best.

 

[jason1]

If you truly believe that then sell your gold?
I however think the opposite, I bethat the mints and refiners cannot get enough to fulfil demand. That they are selling gold they don't even have.that they are continuing to keep prices down by issuing paper metals and that the flow in effect on industry would be devastating if they got called to deliver everything they have issued paper for. When they come unstuck the price will eclipse the premiums you see now and that the premiums are the natural market response to a manipulated market.
Mints and refiners usually make the same amount no matter the spot price, stability is their ideal market

why would I sell my gold? My gold has been a very good investment, but thats only because ive paid attention to both spot and premium prices over the majority of my purchases, other than a few 1/10 coins here and there, the rest I  only bought when prices were good and premiums were reasonable. I cant lose on that.

Ive done mass sales of silver in the past, i dumped a good sized amount around 2000 ounces before the 2011 crash at around $38an ounce, that stack had a dollar cost average of less than $10 an ounce. Because i stayed out of the mania in 2009-2011, and bought almost all my silver when spot was around $7-$9
an ounce. and when people started paying stupid money for silver,During that tulip fever of 2010 I let them buy it, and stayed out of it.

I started the stack back up again after the price crash and when premiums went to shit between 2013-2018, in 2011 people were paying stupid premiums in those days if you remember, and when it tanked the premiums eventually tanked with it.

the only reason my current stack survived this last silver pump was because I was unsure of the economy and wanted to keep my hedge, other wise I would have done a cash in sale over the last 12 months and started the stack again when it crashed as its doing.But the premiums are garbage its not even worth adding to the stack.
however things might change when people start losing their houses and need to cash in their stacks and other investments, there will be a fire sale on these sorts of investments out side of the dealers on the open market when the house market crashes.  there was allot of metal pumper guys who we never heard of again on SS when that silver smack down happened in that 2011-12 period lol . they were saying the same thing, back the truck up the premiums was just silver separating from spot even though spot is going down lol, look what happened to them, they got wiped out because those premiums went eventually and they had nothing to fall back on, go look back at some of those old posts

I know the housing markets rigged, i know the stock markets rigged, doesn't mean im not going to  or dont play either them, If your playing a rigged game you dont play against something that is rigged. paying what ever premiums these pricks are putting out there is not smart IMO, the only thing you end up with is an expensive smaller stack  for more money and you have less buying power as result when shit goes bad. its simple

 

[Aurora et Luna]

Fast forward to the 22 minute mark for comments by Mike Maloney about how difficult it was to source gold and silver when there is a bull market for precious metals.

https://goldsilver.com/blog/inflation-2022-what-can-you-do/

 

[Shaddam IV]

Being that we are in a high inflation cycle and that rent, electricity and every other business cost has suddenly risen why is anyone surprised that bullion retailers have had to increase prices? In that respect they are facing the same operating costs as every other Australian business. Bullion stores aren't in a protected bubble.

 

[jason1]

Being that we are in a high inflation cycle and that rent, electricity and every other business cost has suddenly risen why is anyone surprised that bullion retailers have had to increase prices? In that respect they are facing the same operating costs as every other Australian business. Bullion stores aren't in a protected bubble.

ive already conceded i was to tough on retail dealers by lumping them in with government mints, read back a few posts,


what ever the reason, the premiums are still utter trash, buying with these premiums on top is paying to much to catch a falling knife.

 

[alor]

London Gold Dealer Runs Out of Bullion as Truss Budget Shocks
Bullion priced in sterling came close to a record last week
Brokerages see surge in demand from British retail investors
ByEddie Spence
October 1, 2022 at 3:30 PM GMT+8

there are more pipelines in other places that need to be destroyed, the employer pay good gold ounces lol

 

[STKR]

I haven't jumped on BullionNow's website for ages. Surprised (not really) to see they have premiums on their silver products which are on-par with almost all other major dealers. On a price basis, all the carrot dangling in previous years is now gone.