Australian Real Estate Bubble

[ozcopper]

David Hay:  Australian residential land is now worth more, relative to GDP, than residential land in Japan at the peak of the epic 1990s bubble.

Source: https://kingworldnews.com/last-time-this-happened-gold-surged-800-gold-mining-stocks/

 

[STKR]

We had a problem prior to 2020 and, to be honest, I didn't think it would balloon out of control the way it has in such a short time. It's ridiculous and further validates those who believe house prices will perpetually rise to new highs year after year.

Governments, banks and regulators know exactly what low interest rates and loose lending standards will do. They contribute to the crisis and pretend it was unforeseeable. We had a fake royal commission, which uncovered extremely shady practices from  banks and brokers, then 2020 hit and we doubled down to ensure our future generations don't stand a chance to have a slither of independence from the state.

 

[jason1]

Its as bubble as fuck, but at the same time  Unless you are over mortgaged you would want to be owning a house right now. prices crash rents will go up and rental security is bad currently in many places like QLD. People who arent getting their leases renewed are finding them selves homeless, and cant get rentals in many towns here in qld, doesnt matter if they work or have good history.
and the hardest problem is, when prices tank and financial crisis hits banks dont give out loans so more often than not people cant take advantage of lower prices.

the entire market is fucked, but again unless your one of those fools who are over mortgaged you would be better off owning one for the reason of housing security alone, even if prices go down.

its those fucken idiots who are over mortgaged that will be fucked, we all know one of those people, the ones you know who arent rich but bought the best of the best because they used all their houses equity to finance it lol

if people start defaulting and kicked out of their homes like in the US and Ireland in 2008, the rental market gets even tighter and more people competing for rentals that arent there.

 

[alor]

the houses will kick out the occupants, they prefer them empty
worst is yet ahead
in the 90s Japan was more expensive than the USA...then they have FLAT of properties prices ever since, been 30 years, 10 more years to go.

 

[belever]

Australian governments have historically provided extensive support to the housing market - grants, bonuses, finance etc - there was no housing crash during COVID.

Replacement cost of existing housing is rising rapidly due to wage and building materials price increases - that may put a floor under the price of existing housing as a substitution good.

Rental demand is extremely strong and there is a nexus between tenants and first homebuyer demand; with increasing rents pushing the most financially capable tenants into home ownership and providing support at the bottom end of the market

 

[jason1]

Australian governments have historically provided extensive support to the housing market - grants, bonuses, finance etc - there was no housing crash during COVID.

Replacement cost of existing housing is rising rapidly due to wage and building materials price increases - that may put a floor under the price of existing housing as a substitution good.

Rental demand is extremely strong and there is a nexus between tenants and first homebuyer demand; with increasing rents pushing the most financially capable tenants into home ownership and providing support at the bottom end of the market

problem is now for the housing market, unlike previous years, there is very little the gov can do now to prop this thing up, they cant lower interest rates, and their budget is trash, so stimulus is less likely, they cant really put more money into the market while the RBA is trying to curb inflation via interest rate rises.

what the government should have done years ago, if they actually gave a shit about housing affordability was for them to have stayed the hell out of the housing market, But hey we cant have the poli's housing investment portfolios go down can we, lol

I own my house and have a rental property, Honestly I couldn't give a toss if the prices of houses went down. I dont rely on equity like many people do.

I think people should own homes to live in over renting, and its currently insane younger blue collar families cant these days, the market is stupid and out of control.

the only reason I have a rental property is because I know my young 3 year old daughter wont have a chance in hell of owning her own home when she grows up, If i didnt buy one and get it paid off for her. In the mean time gives some one a place to rent.
But I do hope this market crashes for a few years and gets some young regular income families in their own homes, because im of the old school opinion that the only investments a home should be is for the reason of a place for people to raise their families.
and any one who has taken out to much debt against their homes for more investment properties, they belong on the streets,Im sick of us protecting those people at the expense of regular battlers.

 

[jason1]

We had a problem prior to 2020 and, to be honest, I didn't think it would balloon out of control the way it has in such a short time. It's ridiculous and further validates those who believe house prices will perpetually rise to new highs year after year.

Governments, banks and regulators know exactly what low interest rates and loose lending standards will do. They contribute to the crisis and pretend it was unforeseeable. We had a fake royal commission, which uncovered extremely shady practices from  banks and brokers, then 2020 hit and we doubled down to ensure our future generations don't stand a chance to have a slither of independence from the state.

Yer they knew exactly what they were doing, they spent stimulus money to the tune of $1trillion during the pandemic to pretty much prop up one industry, there is no coincidence that the politicians in Canberra own collectively 421 homes, at pre-pandemic levels valued at $430m, Now we ad 23% increase in prices nation wide in the last 12months, and roughly 12% the year before. that total would be astronomical.
they just grew their portfolios. before they pumped money into the housing at the beginning of the scamdemic it was the first time in a very long time we saw house prices go backwards, then the money quickly come rolling in from the gov, and up and away it went to this insanity we are seeing now.
$50k checks for people to renovate their bathrooms, $50k checks to build a house lol of coarse they knew it would jack up prices. any time the government gives a $1 towards the housing market for any reason, it seems to make prices go up $2 lol

Im all for markets deciding the value of things on their own, however right now its not the regular market doing this,  its government handing out money to people, giving tax breaks and shit like that which has propped this shit show up. and when something requires government constantly stepping in to ease pain on owners, then its not a genuine market, its perfect example of Crony capitalism

 

[belever]

For ordinary mums and dads, housing is one of the few ways they can seek to build wealth with some degree of personal involvement and control.

The majority of investors have only one additional property.

There are few investors with more than 5.

I have met a number of those few, and none of them fit the category of greedy capitalist exploiters of tax loopholes.

all have worked really hard to build and maintain their wealth.

the elite and super rich typically avoid holding residential housing, principally because of legislation in all states giving massively enhanced rights to their client base, rights that would not be provided by any free market. examples include, restrictions on tenant bond to far less than the cost of any damage, restrictions on tenancy databases so defaulting tenants get a fresh start, restrictions on tenant court judgements so that money owed does not go on their credit record (the majority of tenant debts are never recovered).

the exposure of the rich to residential housing is more by the development of land and buildings, followed by sale.  a large profit which can be created with the assistance of government via land sale, preferred allocation, zoning changes at the local, state or federal level, and tax concessions.

if the rich do decide to hold property (perhaps as part of the 'you will own nothing and be happy' plan), it will be in the form of units, typically high rise, and not free-standing houses (the vehicle of choice for mums and dads). 

there has been some recent appetite for such developments, which is why their friend the government has just now provided tax concessions for "built to let" developments. note these likely will not apply to mum and dad developments like a duplex or three pack, but to mega developments.

 

[Aurora et Luna]

House prices fall is increasing
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10971331/Australian-house-prices-fall-Sydney-Melbourne-Brisbane-rates-rising.html

 

[jason1]

House prices fall is increasing
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10971331/Australian-house-prices-fall-Sydney-Melbourne-Brisbane-rates-rising.html

thats because half the bastards from Melbourne,Sydney left the joint and moved up here to the bloody sunny coast and beyond, which inflated our prices lol, by the amount of people who bailed from down south Im shocked the prices hadnt tanked before this lol crazy housing crisis up my way due to the migration from down south to up north, no bastard can even get a house even if they wanted too, and they keep turning up here ahaha. our population in our town grew by 30% in 18months and most were southerners lol

 

[alor]

increase the interests a few percentage points to move them back South

 

[jason1]

increase the interests a few percentage points to move them back South

I was hoping a good hot QLD summer would send them packing back down south lol, but the problem is, the pricks sold up their over priced homes down south, came up here buying two family sized houses for the price of their shitty small apartment back down south. lol so they are likely doing ok on the mortgage front